Sunday, April 13, 2014

P.E.N.

By 2030, robots and A.I. will be able to perform virtually all jobs - faster, better and cheaper than humans. However, there will still be jobs for us. It is imperative that you begin preparing right now if you don't want to get caught in the approaching wave of technological unemployment.

A recent study found that 47% of all job descriptions are at risk in the next decade.  So, this is not a problem of the far off future.  Unemployment could exceed 20% within the next ten years.  Many think that education and intelligence will indemnify people from the coming wave of Technological Unemployment.  IBM's Doctor Watson, which is now a better diagnostician than any human doctor, should disabuse people of that misconception.  Soon, artificial intelligence similar to Watson will take over many of the functions of the legal, engineering and accounting professions, as well. Information Age careers will exist, not because robots and computers can't do them, but rather because humans will not want robots and computers to do them. Most of these jobs will fall within a few broad categories.

  1. Decision makers:  Computers and robots taking over functions of authority is such a persistent theme in science fiction because it is a widespread and deep fear.  Because of this, while we will automate nearly all of the corporate ladder (computers will eat the org chart from the bottom up), the 'C' level jobs will remain in human hands.  Because of the Age of Boutique Everything, there will be many, many enterprises with many, many top positions.  While not exclusively, most of these will be 'owner-operator' positions.
  2. Government Leaders: The Zeitgiest Movement notwithstanding, most people would view a robotic government executive, legislator or judge as quintessentially dystopian.  While expert systems will greatly enhance the productivity of the process of governance, in the end, the votes that will be counted will be human, not robotic.  The leaders will be human, not robots.
  3. Creatives:  A perfume named Rendezvous by R2D2 will just never sell as well or for as much as Wonderstruck by Taylor Swift.  We may, for the sake of curiosity, buy a ticket to see a robotic orchestra, but we will never buy a season ticket.  All of the very highest rated chess players are now computer programs.  Still, we marvel and watch as human chess players engage one another in competition.  Our appreciation of creative works is inextricably intertwined with our humanity.  Because of this, while computer assistance will be common, nearly all creative activities will remain in human hands.
  4. Designers: Product design is actually a subset of the creative activity, but, because it will likely be the single largest job category, we are listing it separately.  In an Age of Boutique Everything, nearly everything will be bespoke or custom designed.  To be sure, there will be significant computer aided design.  However, in the end, a human's name will be on the label or nameplate.
  5. Personal trainers, coaches and consultants: In many cases, even today, personal trainers, life coaches and consultants are retained even though they aren't really needed.  However, we want them for the human interaction they provide and that will not change.  In fact, as the world becomes more affluent, our desire for them will likely increase.  We see this now in the upper income households who frequently have a half dozen or more trainers, coaches and consultants.  Even if computer programs can simulate 'relating to us' save in very limited contexts, the human psyche is not equipped to accept it as real and satisfying.  
  6. Social enhancers: Restaurant dining, visiting a night club, buying clothing are just a few activities that are greatly enhanced by the social interaction that they entail.  In an age of great affluence, people will gladly pay more for that social interaction of a human waiter or fashion consultant.  It is not that robots cannot do these jobs; it is that we will be willing to pay more for humans to do them.

There are four critical tools you will need in order to acquire an Information Age career sooner rather than later. Membership in an Enterprise Network will provide them.

Every person who wants to enter the Information Age, whether as a decision maker, creative or designer will need several tools in order to be successful. They are


  1. Cost effective access to customers  Kevin Kelly wrote a seminal article, '1,000 True Fans' in which he suggested that creatives who have a small niche can still make a living at their art if they can just find 1,000 true fans who will provide them with $100 per year of revenue.  The problem is that in the vast majority of cases it is just not cost effective to find one's 1,000 true fans among the billion+ people on the Internet. While the 'X True Fans' strategy is attractive, it requires a cost effective marketing channel in order to profitably aquire these true fans.  The Enterprise Network solves this problem by creating and sharing a highly targeted list of potential customers.  Find the correct Enterprise Network and success is assured for a quality product, service or content.
  2. Access to collaborators and strategic partners  Few people can bring every needed skill to the table for the success of a new enterprise.  That is why Microsoft was founded by Bill Gates and Paul Allen, Google was founded by Sergey Brin and Larry Page and Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg and Eduardo Severin.  Most enterprises, whether destined for market values in the hundreds of billion or just hundreds of millions require collaborations and strategic partners such as Microsoft was for IBM's desktop computers.  They are actually very difficult to find.  Executive search firms will charge $50,000 or more to find one for you.  Enterprise Networks, by accumulating members with similar goals and objectives, greatly enhances the probability that fruitful collaborations will form.
  3. Access to early round funding  Equity crowdfunding has greatly enhanced the ability for startups and early stage enterprises to find funding on favorable terms - at least in theory.  Most potential enterprise starters simply do not have the network necessary to make it work.  In general, a crowdfunding effort will require about one contact for every $0.50 to $1.00 raised.  That means that a $500,000 start up will need to present itself to 500,000 to 1,000,000 potential investors.  That is simply beyond the capability of most new enterprises.  However, Enterprise Networks, by having access to a large, shared customer base, usually can present crowdfunding offerings to that many people.
  4. A superior knowledge of the emerging Information Age civilization   At no time in the past 200 years has the world thirty years hence been generally believable.  Consequently, if you hear a description of the future and it sounds reasonable, history says that it is wrong.  Put simply, if one's knowledge of futurity is flawed there is a very good chance that the product, service, content or business model will be flawed as well.  This, of course, does not mean that every unbelievable picture of the future is correct.  Most of them are unbelievable because they are wrong.  But, a well functioning Enterprise Network will have a Strategic Planning and Future Studies function that allows its members to have a knowledge of futurity that is superior to their competitors that are not members of an Enterprise Network.

Except for those who are already in Information Age careers (computer programmer does not count, since Watson or a relative will be doing that soon enough), every person will have some date in the future when their current method of acquiring an income will disappear.  Clearly, it is better not to wait until it happens.  However, because Information Age workers typically earn mid to upper six figure income, if not higher, one should want to make the transition as soon as possible, anyway. 

The Polymathica Enterprise Network
We are searching for individuals of intelligence, drive and vision who are ready to make a meaningful commitment to their Information Age career by joining our Enterprise Network for Polymathica.  The Polymathica Enterprise Network will provide products, services, content and networks to a refined, erudite market niche that, currently, is very poorly served.  

From our experience, we estimate that Polymathica, The Polymath and its sister enterprises will acquire members and subscribers of about 4.5 million from an initial organizational development effort.  As products, services and content offerings expand, registered membership could grow to as much as 15 million over the next five to seven years.  That is tiny compared to the broad market sites, such as Facebook, Google, Amazon, Twitter, Linkedin, etc.  However, because of broader offerings P.E.N. will not be small.

Enterprises in our network, of course, should be targeted at the refined, erudite consumer.  However, advertising options will be even more tightly targeted and, therefore, even more cost effective.  For example, an Enterprise Network Member who markets archeology tours will be able to advertise directly to members of archeology oriented groups and articles in The Polymath that have an archeology theme.  Advertising can be display (cost per impression), cost per click or affiliate (% of revenue).  In this way, members can custom craft an advertising strategy to specifically fit their needs.

When a member enterprise wants to undertake crowdfunding, either reward or equity, they will be able to place a half page description of their offer in The Polymath.  Because the page will be ad supported, the insertion is taken as news and costs nothing to the offerer.  They will be able to place a link to their Kickstarter, Fundable, etc. page for those interested in learning more and possibly crowdfunding.

At http://polymathica.network-maker.com we are setting up a number of private discussion groups and fora that are intended to be work groups and networking opportunities for members of the Polymathica Enterprise Network.  While the site has free groups and social media functionality, the work groups are for P.E.N. Members only.

The Polymathic Institute, the general administrator for the Polymathica Enterprise Network, is preparing a three semester credit, graduate level online course entitled 'The Transformation'.  It will provide members of Polymathica Enterprise Network with a superior knowledge of futurity and, specifically, the social, economic and political aspects of Western civilization after The Transformation.  This knowledge will provide a distinct competitive advantage for P.E.N. members.

Charter Membership
Upon maturity, membership in P.E.N. will likely cost an amount similar to premium membership in Linkedin or professional membership in ABA, AMA, AICPA, etc.  These organizations charge in the $300 to $400 per year range.  

However, the first 300 Charter Members will receive lifetime membership plus a series of online courses as they become available for a total of $300.  The rationale for the low cost is that Charter Members are creating value nearly as much as they are consuming it. Furthermore, as they acquire their 360 subscribers per year to the Polymath and/or Polymathica, those who become P.E.N. Members will receive a $100 refund.  By the time Charter Members complete their 720 Polymathican recruitment requirement, they should have lifetime membership with no net cost.  In the meantime, the $300 will be used, primarily, to fund the administrative process of building membership and, as a byproduct, members of Polymathica.

If you not yet ready to join P.E.N. you should register at Polymathica.  As you work through the process, you will likely interact with one or more Members. Remember, we are limiting charter membership, currently to 300, though we may extend the offer to somewhat more if we do not, at that time, have our target organizational development. After the Charter Membership is full, the cost of participation will increase.  It is possible, given demonstrable access to valuable startups for participation and crowdfunding, that the ultimate cost of participation will reach levels similar to franchise fees.  Consequently, Charter Membership, ultimately, may constitute a substantial savings.


Join P.E.N. as a Charter Member
You will be charged a $300 prepayment that will be refunded to you as you reach your subscription goal and you will have no further charges for Membership

Membership E-mail

Join P.E.N. as a Regular Member
You will be charged the regular membership fee of $300, recurring one time each year.
Membership E-mail